Saturday, March 12, 2011

STOCK MARKET HERO OR ZERO

I know that readers are in delima.What to do ?Whether to average or sell or hold?
This is a very typical type of situation.SEBI has barred Mr.Sanjay Dangi and its properiety firm.Sanjay Dangi said he is going to challenge the verdict.
The name of yesteryear Big Bull(Ketan Parekh) has come in Media that he is operating through front entities of his coetire and is trying to bring him to books.
His old scams examples are coming up in media to scar the investors.
These a clear fight between BULL and BEARS.
This fight is very old.Maybe some 3 decades and more.But the first blood was drawn when Harshad Mehta fought his first battle.Around mid 80's, stock market was completly in rein of bears.There were perticular group who always play the bearish game.They never let any stock go up on fundamentals even if the earnings are growing exponentially.At that time, ACC, Tisco(Tata Steel),Tata Motors, Century Tex etc etc were 100 paidup shares and their price use to remain in the vicinity of 170 to 380.Means if we take current 10 paidup then they use to remain in 17 to 38 rupees range.
The price of these 100 fv stock will go up from 170 to 210 or 240 as soon as the Div is declared and will come back again to 170 as soon as it becomes XD.
If Bonus is declared then it will go to 380or max 400-500.That's it.These the Bears lobby will never let it go above those level and if someone try to take it up from that his stock is hammered in such a way through bear gang that he is out of the market.Such was the power of these bear lobby.When a series of short selling takes place then there is no way an individual can do anything to them.Many tried to swim against the tide of bear cartel but were annihilated or buchtered and became bankrupt and lost everything including their houses and jwelleries.
Then came the entry of Harshad Mehta.He was already there watching all these for sometime.But he took up the challenge singlehandedly and took the fight in bears camp.When he took charge, ACC was 300 and Castrol was 400 and he started making position in ACC.He started buying ACC in Futures which then was known as carryforward trade and the Interest one has to give for carry forward trade for every week , or week by week was known as Badla .
If one has short sold stock and he wants to carry forward it then the int. he use to earn was known as undha badla where the short sellers use to gain badla(interest) and that was a very confusing deal.In the sense that a person who short sell gets the int(badla) from who is long.
Well, Harshad Mehta became bull in that time around late 80's and early 90's and he started buying ACC and Castrol in Longs and in futures( which was known then as carryforward trade).
He kept on buying ACC from 300 , 400, 500, 600, 700 and bears went on selling ACC thinking over 500 ?Oh that can never be the price of ACC.They had never let ACC go beyond that so they went on short selling uptill 1300-1400 and Harshad Mehta kept on buying ACC from bears uptill 1400 and it was alomst all eq was dried up for bears to short sell and they even shortsold over and above that and Harshad Mehta kept buying that came from bears.
Bears were never able to understand how HM is able to buy all they sell.How the money is coming because for any thing to buy , one has to dole out money for that buy he somehow managed with that through banks receipt.
And then the real game started when Dr Manmohan Singh, then Fin Minister, opened up the gates for FII's in 1992 and the market went in frenzy.
ACC went going up and up and it touched Rs.10,000(means 10 paidup, 1000).Now imagine the price people use to see for ACC for decades which is never above 400-500 and it become 10,000!Beras never imagined that ACC can touch Rs 10,000 and no one imagined that.
All these happened in 4-5 months.Bears were in a very bad situation.If we say that avergae price they short sold ACC was a median of 200 and 1400 then it comes to 700 or most probably 800 or 1000 and the price became 10,000 , so the difference between 10,000 and 1000 is a HUGE 9000 rupees! and if someone  has short sold just 1000 shares he has to pay the difference of  rs.90 lacs in year 1992 and rs 90 lac was a very big amt in 1992 .Just imagine those bears who short sold 10,000 or 1 lac or 2 lac or 5 lac shares what they have to dole out as difference?No way they can fulfill the trade.They have to go to Harshad Mehta and tell him to find a way and close the deal at much lower rate.They were running from pillar to post and try to catch someone who has contact with Harshad Mehta so that they can talk with him and make a deal.The bears never let Teji to happen and whoever tried to go agianst them were slaughtered , so when Hrashad has his day it was going to be very difficult for bears to even talk with him.Harshad was the first person who made a BIG dent in the fort of bears.He came out like a LION.After his bullrun people started taking interest in Dalal Street otherwise Dalal Street was a BIG NO for a small person.Harshad Mehta showed what is the meaning of TEJI.What is called TEJI.He showed what happened where the prices can go in a BULL market.To me he was the pioneer of 1st Bull Market in India.Though he was a college drop out, he was very sharp and able to understand what is going to happen how he was going to deal with it.I know many people do not like him due to scam , but for ONCE he showed bears the HELL.He showed BEARS what the HELL looks like which these BEARS were showing to others! Can anyone imagine the scenario at Dalal Street at that time?Bears faces were dimmed and trying to scramble to even talk with Harshad Mehta to make a deal for their shorts in ACC? Dalal Street was overjoyed with Bears annihilated for the first time in decades.They were slaughtered for the first time.Harshad Mehta was a HERO.
One had to just imagine what should be scenario there.......
In those time when BEARS WERE RULING THE MARKET NO ONE DARE TO SPEAK TEJI.
The word , "SKY IS THE LIMIT "only came after Harshad came on the floor.No one dared to speak, this sentence before Harshad came.
One needs to remember that Harshad Mehta was alone and against him was a whole lobby of bears.A catrel of Bears and to fight with them on each and everyfront was no mean an achievement.He has to play his cards very well otherwise with just one leak of information and Bears will attack him and he is nowhere.That they did at last.Find out where he is getting money and broke the castle which Harshad made.But I have great respect for Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh as well.They were real BULLS.Though their way of operating were not legal but they did it.Taking loans and receipts of crores of rupees and playing the game is not easy.It is a game of 100-200 or even 500-1000 cr game and more.
As I once wrote, keeping market in 20% upper circuit is no child's play which we saw in 2009 when election results were declared.
That is how Harshad Mehta broke the legacy of BEAR LOBBY.He was the first BULL of our market.Though his way of doing things were not correct but he once showed to the BEARS that they can't WIN and dictate the price of any stock at their WILL.
Many bears of that time has now turned BULLS and some are still there playing both the games still.They are BEARS at oppertunity and BULLS at different scenario that takes place.They change their stand according to what is happening in Int market and how BULL are palying their cards.But now we don't see permanent BEAR and that was the difference Harshad Mehta brought to our market.We have bull run as well as bear run.Otherwise in old days it was only bearrun and nothing else.
I remember people use to buy in certian months and sell in certain months.The profit was average 20% and these cycle use to come 3 to 4 times every year.The months were predecided.Buy in these months, sell after 2-3months  take 20 % and again buy after couple of months and sell.....
Some of the Bear operators has such a holding on Dalal Street, which was fondly known as, that they tell the Co Chairman whom to take as Director.He will sit with a wishlist and call CM or send message that keep this person as Dir or your Co price will be broken.Yes, that was how itr was.They even dictate when to give Bonus.They first corner the stock and then pressurize the CM to declare Bonus.Some one will go at the AGM of the Co and will openly pressurize the managemet to declare Bonus.
Those who are new in market do not know anything.You are all just a 1/1000 th percent of a drop in an ocean.Even now what is going on in market , many shouldn't be aware of but there is going on a BIG fight between BULLS and BEARS and each one trying to come one up against each other.It is a MEGA FIGHT BETWEEN BULLS AND BEARS.
These Bear Lobby tried to play with Riliance Ind and Dhirubhai Ambani taught them such a lesson that from there onwards Bears never touched Ril Ind.Bears tried to play the same game with Ril Ind short selling, and Dhirubhai dealt it with BEARS.
That story , about what happened can be read in a Book.I forget the name of the Book but if one will google one will definately find it.It is worth reading how Dhirubhai did it.
The fight between Bulls and Bears are not new in Indian Market nor is in International Market.
This will keep on happening but stock with great fundamentals one will get only in these type of situations.I have been going through the Bulk Deals everyday at bse site and I can say that many HNI's has to sell their holding due to margin pressure etc.
"No stock can go up without operator."
These is a very big sentence but it is true.Stock can never move up over 40-50% withour operator.It is not possible for investor to move a stock over 40-50%.If a stock is giving over 50% return in a year then operator needs to come in picture.The floating stock needs to get dried and there needs to be the paucity of floating stock.The counter then becomes almost dry and then the operation starts.
Hard to explain all these here.I am also not much aware of how things happens but just writing how it happens on my own assumption.
Market will bounce back.This is the fight betwen bulls and bears and nothing else.India is growing.....

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